Has good luck deserted Jonathan? by Achilleus-Chud Uchegbu

I am still wondering if President Goodluck Jonathan is in contention for the presidency in 2011. I ask this because there seem to be too much hype about his throwing his hat into the ring than he has said. Till this moment, Goodjo has not been heard, at any fora, making any statement suggesting that he is the number one contender for the top job despite advantages of incumbency. But there is an aura of confidence, especially among his admirers, that the 2011 presidency is already sealed and delivered for him.

But there are still conflicting signals. Some say he will never declare any intention. Others who believe he would have disappointed if he does not, do not want to hear that Goodjo, will not join the fray. So, it is either he is waiting for God, like politicians always do, or he is still consulting. His foreign Affairs minister, Henry Odein Ajumogobia, gave him out when he told the world at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, that his boss was still consulting. Ajumogobia spoke on August 4.

Eight days after Ajumogobia spoke, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) National Executive Committee (NEC) met to tell Goodjo, in a more emphatic way, that the consultation would probably not help much. Most people are still at crossroads over the implication of what the PDP NEC told Goodjo at the meeting. The party reminded the President that the 2011 ticket is a continuation of the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket. If the shortest course between two points, as in elementary geometry, is a straight line, the PDP, by implication, reaffirmed that the 2011 ticket is still a north/south ticket.

It is hard to take. But that is the mind of the PDP. I agree that Goodjo is a senior partner of that joint ticket. But the party, in insisting on retaining its zoning principle, is unequivocal that the presidency is still zoned to the north till 2015. What that means is that the Jonathan-For-President movement may be working for another date. I may be wrong in my understanding of the mind of PDP. But I know that the PDP’s position that Goodjo is free to contest is a simple way of upholding his constitutional rights.

I think PDP is saying it has no powers to disenfranchise Goodjo, or anybody, for that matter. Insisting that Goodjo is not qualified to contest for the office would amount to abuse of the constitution which may lead to a legal battle that would earn more sympathy for Goodjo, like it did for Atiku Abubakar in 2007 when he battled his disqualification by Obasanjo’s EFCC.

Cleverly, the PDP avoided that likelihood and told Goodjo he is free to contest. However, this freedom is tied to the zoning apron which reaffirmed the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket. I had insisted that Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket is not the same thing as Jonathan/Yar’Adua ticket. Again, I may be wrong. Therefore, if the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket is still valid, then the north it is which will produce a replacement for the missing partner of that alliance. Not the other way round.

What this implies is that the PDP may have told Goodjo, in other words, the same thing that Prince Vincent Ogbulafor told him that allegedly led to his removal as PDP national chairman. If, as we were made to believe, Ogbulafor was sacrificed for reminding Goodjo that it is still a northern presidency despite death throwing him up to fill the vacuum, then, I will be waiting to see what happens to the incumbent leadership of the party. For as it is, there is nothing intrinsically different between what Ogbulafor told Goodjo and what has been re-affirmed by the party.

I figure that Goodjo has not told anyone that he is interested in contesting for the Presidency. I give that to him for being calm and focused on the task he has set before himself. Some how, he has not allowed the horde of fair-weather politicians urging him to take the plunge to distract him. They have been too many. And the reason the rank of such politicians is on the increase is not far from the believe that whoever occupies the presidency has the nations wealth in his back pocket. And so, is at liberty to dispense with such wealth as he pleases. Most Nigerians are forgetful of the fact that there are laws governing whatever the president does.

Anyway, that is an aside. What has disturbed me really is the feeling that Goodjo is about running out of good luck. With the PDP’s decision, the carpet seemed pulled from under his feet. But not really. If we do not have selective amnesia, we will be quick to recall Goodjo’s first official visit to Oyo state. During the visit, Goodjo made a disclosure which not most people want to refer to. He had disclosed that there was pressure on him, as soon as he assumed office, to change the service chiefs. Most people, including me, were not comfortable with him for being so blunt. But the reason he gave was more profound. Goodjo said on that occasion that he refused and withstood the pressure because he did not want to upset the political peace the country was enjoying.

Here were his exact words: “I remember when I was made acting president, so many people advised that I remove the service chiefs because they will remove me the next day. I told them that look, we are still hoping that Nigeria will stabilize politically. First is for the democratic system to stabilize and if I remove the service chiefs as acting president, which I could have done by mere pronouncement, all of them would have left. But I said if I had removed them, my conscience will begin to prick me and I would not be comfortable that as a nation we have stabilized but let me leave them even at the expense of my own position and if by God’s grace we succeed Nigeria will say at least politically we have stabilized”.

For me, these are the same words that now stand between Goodjo and his presidential ambition, if indeed there is any. The question remains, if Goodjo was not prepared to sack the service chiefs then, for fear of destabilizing Nigeria, is he now fortified to take the such action in the pursuit of personal, and at times, ethnocentric ambition. Is he now prepared to destabilize Nigeria, if indeed the argument that non-respect of the zoning policy of the PDP could destabilize the country. Is Goodjo being prompted as an agent of destabilization like several groups from the Niger Delta had told us? Some of them had threatened that Nigeria could be no more if Goodjo does not live in the Villa till 2015 and beyond.

This makes me ask if the battle for meaning and reasonable integration into the Nigerian project is one that must come by way of threats. At that Ibadan meeting, Goodjo also said another thing that I hold him to. He said: “That I took over from my boss and swore in a vice president is an indication that the polity has come to stabilize.” Mark that. Goodjo also hit the people with these words: “The next thing is for those of us who are politicians to conduct ourselves in a way that we can trust ourselves and the public will trust us.”

These, to my mind, are profound nationalist statements. These are views of someone who is looking beyond the lure of an office. From his statements, Goodjo does not want to create distrust among the people such that Nigeria’s ethnocentric suspicions will be heightened. This makes it the more interesting when his silence about his political future is considered.

Goodjo has not told his supporters, admirers and ‘the masses’ that he will contest the next election. He has also not said he will not contest. So, everything around him, as far as the next elections are concerned, remains speculative. Therefore, people are also free to say he will contest or he will not contest. For now, most of his close admirers believe he will. Some argue he will not. Oronto Douglas, on a post on his facebook page, said it was still a speculation.

But one thing is certain. Goodjo will have disappointed several of his admirers if he does not contest. In the same way, he would have betrayed his own words and failed to conduct himself “in a way that we can trust ourselves and the public will trust us” if he takes the plunge to unsettle the political stability and peace he had achieved.

For him now, it is a matter of choice. To take advantage of opportunity provided by providence to be counted as one of the makers of modern Nigeria, or be counted along the lines of those who worked to destabilize the polity.