Jonathan: The burden of public pressure to contest by Levi Obijiofor

EVER since the enthronement of Goodluck Jonathan as substantive president six weeks ago, Nigeria’s deliberative space has been dominated by official and unofficial chatter about Jonathan’s future political goal. The overriding question is: will Jonathan contest next year’s presidential election or will he vacate the throne later this year, ahead of the presidential election? If he contests the election or quits the job, how would he explain his decision?

The debate over Jonathan’s political future has remained fundamentally fuzzy and an exercise in deductive reasoning, on two principal grounds. One: Jonathan, the man who is the subject of the debate, has refused to address the subject. No one knows how he intends to shuffle his political cards or how he plans to assess his limited options. Two: the public debate has been appropriated by people who are pushing their political interests from two entrenched positions. There are people who want Jonathan to contest the 2011 presidential election and others who want him to relinquish the crown as a mark of respect for his party’s so-called zoning arrangement.

The problem with the suggestion that Jonathan should vacate the presidency at the end of his current tenure is that, even within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), opinions are sharply divided about the existence of the zoning agreement. The growing confusion over the PDP’s zoning deal might play into the hands of Jonathan. His supporters could argue, for example, that it is unreasonable for anyone to expect Jonathan to vacate the presidency in honour of an internal party arrangement that has not been confirmed and which the party hierarchy has not clarified? In fact, the longer the PDP leaders continue to bicker over the zoning arrangement, the longer the topic will continue to destabilise the party’s preparation for the presidential election in 2011.

There are so many political permutations swirling around Aso Rock. One plausible argument is that Jonathan might decide to contest the election and then inform the nation that his decision was driven by the uncertainty over the PDP zoning arrangement. He could also adopt the standard excuse which new breed dictators often use to justify their long stay in power. In this context, Jonathan might plead that he requires more time in Aso Rock to enable him to oversee some important projects he started a few months ago.

Another position argues that if Jonathan expresses a lack of interest in next year’s presidential election, he could be deemed to have committed a form of political suicide. He must not jump until he has been pushed. Whatever happens, there are a number of dilemmas that Jonathan and his advisers must confront. First, how do you respect a zoning arrangement that has not been confirmed and which has not been adopted as a party policy? Second, the PDP zoning pact, if it exists and if it is legally binding, is unknown to Nigeria’s constitution. This line of reasoning is likely to warm the hearts of Jonathan’s supporters.

If Jonathan decides to contest the election, the constitution would have provided him with further protective armour against conservative defenders of northern interests. Jonathan can argue quite vigorously that there is nothing in our constitution that precludes him from contesting the presidential election in 2011, just like every other eligible Nigerian citizen. Senator Mohammed Abba-Aji, special adviser to the president on National Assembly matters and a man with a vested interest in Jonathan’s political success, believes the PDP zoning arrangement is no more than “an agreement of convenience to give everybody a sense of belonging”.

Similarly, the former governor of old Oyo State, Victor Omololu Olunloyo, last week delivered an emphatic treatise on why Jonathan must be free to contest the presidential election. At a ceremony in Ijebu-Igbo (Ogun State) early last week, Olunloyo said: “Zoning is not good for Nigeria. Modern political arrangement has gone beyond the issue of zoning. What is good for Nigeria is what our party will do. So, Jonathan is free to contest the election because he is not using his term in office.” It may not be as simple as that.

Leaving Jonathan alone so he can contest the presidential election will not be an easy decision within the PDP. There are regional interests at stake, particularly those politicians who claim to be representing the welfare of northerners, as well as those who feel that an extended presidency for Jonathan would threaten their political and business security.

Alex Akinyele, a former minister of information, said quite categorically that Jonathan should not contest the presidential election. “You see, Nigerians are fond of tempting their leaders to do things against their conscience and when there is a problem, they will back out. He should shun all temptations. I am aware of the fact that the pressure of the temptation might be too much for him to bear but he should remain steadfast in his rejection of the move to lure him to contest.”

Both sides of the debate are compounding Jonathan’s leadership headaches. The man is currently struggling to focus his mind on how he could overcome serious national problems such as instability in the power sector, decaying public infrastructure and institutions, crumbling hospital system and poor healthcare services, electoral reforms that are long overdue, and widespread insecurity spawned by indiscriminate abduction of citizens owing to the collapse of law and order. Against that background, Jonathan must be wondering why everyone wants him to be politically ambidextrous at his adult age.

The challenges before Jonathan are daunting. So far, he has made a good impression by appointing Attahiru Jega as chairperson of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Jega’s appointment received general approval across the nation, an indication that Jonathan picked the right candidate for the job. Beyond this flicker of light at the horizon, the preliminary report card on Jonathan’s performance is unimpressive. Many people hold the view that Jonathan is not significantly an improvement on his predecessors in terms of policy articulation and his approach to governance. Perhaps they are right. Or they could be wrong.

Jonathan could plead that he should not be distracted — by unnecessary debate — from his commitment to improve the welfare and security of the citizens. Senator Abba-Aji, the man whose job it is to defend Jonathan at the National Assembly, alluded to this point last week when he said: “People have been talking about zoning of the presidency but we are not thinking about the challenges before us, that is, the national interest as against the party interest. I am saying this with all sense of patriotism because the biggest problem we have before us now is power and insecurity… Once these two issues are treated, all other things will expectedly follow.”

Whatever happens, Nigerians are entitled to ask questions about the short and long-term political goals of their president. As a representative of the people, Jonathan has the obligation to answer those questions unambiguously and candidly. He does not have to consult local diviners, traditional rulers, or pastors in his church before he should tell Nigerians whether he plans to contest the 2011 presidential election or whether he would vacate the presidency. Some people may not like it if Jonathan decides to contest next year’s presidential election. But it is not a hanging offence if he chooses to do so.